The Trump administration's move to end tariff-free low-cost imports into the US is expected to impact fast fashion retailer Shein more severely than online dollar-store competitor Temu. Both companies have heavily benefited from the 'de minimis' rule, which exempts shipments under$800 from import duties, with a significant portion of US daily packages coming from these retailers. While the Biden administration has scrutinised the rule, Temu has been quicker to adapt, diversifying its shipping strategy to minimise reliance on this exemption.

Temu, owned by PDD Holdings, has made considerable shifts in its model, including a move to bulk shipping to US warehouses instead of directly to consumers. By late 2023, about 50% of its US sales came from local warehouses. The company has also increased sea freight for bulkier items like furniture. This strategy contrasts with Shein's continued dependence on air freight for its fast-fashion inventory, despite opening US centres and expanding its supply chain to countries like Brazil and Turkey.

While the Trump administration's decision is set to raise prices for American consumers ordering from Shein and Temu, analysts believe the impact will not be catastrophic for these Chinese e-commerce giants. Shein, despite its reliance on fast inventory turnover and speed, is seen as capable of adapting, though the new tariffs and regulations will accelerate the need for supply chain diversification.

Recent changes in US Postal Service policies have added further uncertainty, reversing decisions on accepting parcels from China and Hong Kong. Analysts estimate that de minimis shipments could drop by up to 60%. However, experts remain confident that both Shein and Temu will navigate the changes, given the flexibility and competitiveness of their supply chains.